Netherlands step into Group F knowing this opener will shape their summer: Japan arrive as the most capable disruptors in a pool that also features Tunisia and a yet-to-be-confirmed play-off entrant, so the tone they both set here will ripple through June. Ronald Koeman has briefed that he will keep the 3-4-1-2 shape that carried the Oranje through the latter stages of Euro 2024 qualifying, a structure built around Virgil van Dijk’s command, Frenkie de Jong’s rhythm and Xavi Simons linking with Cody Gakpo up front. Hajime Moriyasu, still in charge after steering the Samurai Blue through a faultless Asian qualifying run to date, is expected to answer with his well-rehearsed 4-2-3-1 anchored by Wataru Endo and sparking into life through Kaoru Mitoma, Takefusa Kubo and Ritsu Dōan between the lines.
The Dutch federation has doubled down on continuity after the 2022 World Cup quarter-final exit, trusting Koeman to lean on a defensive triangle of Van Dijk, Nathan Aké and Matthijs de Ligt while Denzel Dumfries and Jeremie Frimpong race the flanks. Memphis Depay’s fitness has been managed carefully since autumn, which is why the staff keep pushing Gakpo’s centrality and carrying Ezechiel Emegha as the late-game battering ram rather than the starting reference point. If the Netherlands circulate the ball quickly enough through De Jong and Tijjani Reijnders, Simons should be the free man arriving in the half spaces behind Japan’s double pivot.
Japan travel with receipts: they beat Germany and Turkey away in 2023 friendlies, and their run to the 2023 Asian Cup quarter-finals underlined how cohesive Moriyasu’s press-and-combine model remains. Endo’s ability to smother counters is the foundation, Daichi Kamada’s progressive passing unlocks transitions and Mitoma’s one-v-one threat forces opponents to tilt their back line. The concern is at centre-back where Ko Itakura and Naomichi Ueda must cope with the aerial and physical load Gakpo and Emegha can bring, especially if the Dutch bombard them with early crosses. Moriyasu’s rotation policy during qualifying suggests he will hold Junya Ito and Daizen Maeda in reserve to stretch tired legs in the final half hour.
With the Group F curtain-raiser still just over three months away, both federations are treating March friendlies as live rehearsals. Koeman wants Bart Verbruggen to cement the number one jersey and will test the build-up circuits against quality opposition to avoid the sterile possession that killed them against Argentina in 2022. Moriyasu, meanwhile, has been drilling rest-defence structures ever since Croatia edged Japan on penalties in Qatar; shutting down second balls around the box is the obsession, because the Netherlands thrive on recycled attacks.
Key stats
- Netherlands are unbeaten in World Cup meetings with Japan, winning 1-0 in Durban in 2010.
- Japan’s most recent competitive defeat was the 2-1 loss to Iran in the 2023 Asian Cup quarter-finals.
- Cody Gakpo scored in each of the Netherlands’ three group matches at the 2022 World Cup.
Plenty hinges on how quickly each side hits tournament rhythm. The Netherlands expect to bank three points and calm any debate about Koeman’s tenure; Japan believe their pace and press can flip the script and seize early control of qualification. Both squads will be scrutinised again in the June warm-ups, but this Group F curtain-raiser already reads like the game that will define who chases top spot and who is left calculating the third-place pathways.
